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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

262
ABNT20 KNHC 131146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located near the Lesser Antilles, and on Subtropical
Storm Joyce, located a little less than a 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Azores.

A trough of low pressure located over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level
winds are generally conducive for the development of a tropical
depression, the system only has about a day before it reaches the
western Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana on Friday and Saturday. Interests there should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop near Bermuda late
this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is
possible after that time while the system drifts westward over the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

more...
Summary for Hurricane Florence (AT1/AL062018)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... ...TORNADO THREAT INCREASING AS FLORENCE MOVES CLOSER... As of 12:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 the center of Florence was located near 33.5, -75.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph. more...
Hurricane Florence Public Advisory Number 57
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

043 
WTNT31 KNHC 131444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...HEAVY RAINBANDS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Cape Charles Light Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
nearing completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars from
indicate that Florence was located near latitude 33.4 North,
longitude 75.5 West.  Florence is moving toward the northwest near
10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion, accompanied by a further
decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A
turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed
is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion
is forecast Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South
Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern
North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane
warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of
eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday
night.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). NOAA Buoy 41025,
located near Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...20 to
30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This rainfall will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...6 to 12 inches, isolated 24 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area this evening or early Friday.  Tropical
storm conditions are already moving onshore within the warning
area.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


more...
Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 57
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

982 
WTNT21 KNHC 131438
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  75.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N  75.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  75.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.9N  76.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.2N  77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.1N  78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.3N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.9N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 40.3N  79.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N  75.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



more...
Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 57
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

236 
WTNT41 KNHC 131456
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

The satellite and radar presentations of Florence have improved
somewhat this morning, with a 20-25 nmi wide eye closing off in the
radar data from the Morehead City and Wilmington WSR-88D Doppler
weather radars. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft investigating the hurricane this morning has not yet found
any flight-level or SFMR winds to support more than about 80 kt at
the surface thus far, even though the pressure has decreased to 955
mb. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 90 kt, given
that there are peak Doppler velocity values up to 110 kt with
average values of 95-97 kt at 15,000 ft in the northern eyewall
region, an area of the hurricane that the reconnaissance aircraft
has not yet sampled. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite
impressive.

Florence has been gradually slowing down this morning, and the
initial motion estimate is now 315/09 kt. The subtropical ridge to
the northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between
Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into
Virginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is
expected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed
by a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday as the
ridge to the north of Florence weakens due to a weak shortwave
trough dropping slowly southward from the Ohio Valley. On days 3-5,
Florence is forecast turn toward the northwest and north around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and move across western
South Carolina on Sunday, across western North Carolina and eastern
Tennessee on Monday, and then move up the spine of the Appalachians
as an extratropical low after the cyclone merges or interacts with a
frontal system. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous one, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models
TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Florence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the
hurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12
hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior
to landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some
due to upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall
occurs, rapid weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is
expected to due land interaction and Florence's slow forward speed
of 5 kt or less. However, intense rainbands are expected to develop
over the Atlantic waters and keep moving along the coast and inland,
likely producing strong wind gusts through Saturday night.

Aircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large
hurricane.  Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
damaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where
the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The
greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and
Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western
Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina as soon as this evening,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 33.4N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 33.9N  76.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 34.2N  77.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  15/0000Z 34.1N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  15/1200Z 34.0N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/1200Z 34.3N  81.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1200Z 36.9N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/1200Z 40.3N  79.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart


more...

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