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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
more...
Summary for Subtropical Storm Andrea (AT1/AL012019)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue May 21 the center of Andrea was located near 30.0, -69.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. more...
Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

000
WTNT31 KNHC 210835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 69.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 69.0 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and that general
motion is expected to continue this morning.  A turn toward the
northeast is forecast by this afternoon, followed by an eastward
motion by late tonight and Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest and south of
Bermuda during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by weakening
late tonight.  Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

more...
Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019

000
WTNT21 KNHC 210834
TCMAT1
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019
0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  69.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N  69.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  69.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.7N  68.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N  66.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N  65.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N  69.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
more...
Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 210835
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012019
500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably,
likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and
modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid-
and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous
advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught
35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which
was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly
stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the
aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is
slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur
within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front
steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and
regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn
northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and
Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching
deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little
south of the middle of the track guidance envelope.

Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm
activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when
Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into
a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W
longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind
shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output.
However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur
before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus,
the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in
strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with
a cold front on Wednesday.  The official intensity forecast closely
follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in
the global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 30.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 30.7N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 31.2N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 31.3N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

more...

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