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NHC Atlantic
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook000
ABNT20 KNHC 041122
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a couple hundred miles north-northwest of
the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
more...
...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 4
the center of Philippe was located near 20.5, -65.5
with movement NW at 9 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
more...
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 44Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 44930 WTNT32 KNHC 040843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 ...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe, as Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a faster motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification could occur after that time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through today: The United States & British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts to 12 inches. Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches. This rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding. WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the the Virgin Islands through early today. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda by late Thursday. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papinmore...
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 44000 WTNT22 KNHC 040842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N 65.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 60SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 51.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPINmore...
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 040849 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 Philippe remains a disorganized tropical storm this morning, yet continues to produce heavy rainfall over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. This activity remains displaced well to the southeast of the estimated circulation center, and appears to be more associated with the storm's inflow interacting with a well-defined mid-level circulation just north of St. Thomas, which is evident from radar in Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data received just after the last advisory showed values around 40 kt in this area of convection, and the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. This value is on the higher end of the Dvorak intensity estimates, but does match the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate. The earlier scatterometer data suggested that Philippe had slowed down some, possibly due to the ongoing convection to its southeast, but its latest motion appears to have resumed a more northwestward motion at 325/8 kt. The track guidance remains in agreement about the storm turning more northward later today, with gradual acceleration as the mid-level ridge that has been impeding its poleward progress gradually shifts eastward, and Philippe becomes steered between a deep-layer low to its west, and the aforementioned ridge to its east. Compared to the previous cycle, the guidance has shifted a bit eastward over the first 2-3 days of the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast was shifted a bit further east early on, but not as far as the consensus aids. After Philippe passes by Bermuda on Friday, it is forecast to interact with a much more amplified trough swinging into the northeastern United States this weekend. This evolution may result in Philippe's track potentially bending back north-northwest on Saturday, approaching Atlantic Canada and New England as it phases with the larger trough. There still remains quite a bit of spread in the track guidance by 96 h due to this interaction. The intensity forecast remains murky. Right now, the low-level circulation of Philippe remains diffuse, and even though vertical wind shear could potentially slacken some over the next 24 hours, the cyclone appears to be in no state to intensify in the short-term. Thereafter, Philippe may have an opportunity to take advantage of some synoptic mid-latitude dynamics associated with the initial upper-level trough positioned to the west of its circulation. Thus, some gradual intensification is shown between 36-60 h. With that said, some of the model guidance (like the most recent GFS run) shows Philippe instead being absorbed into this non-tropical feature, though that solution is not shown at this time. Regardless, increasing baroclinicity should also begin to initiate extratropical transition after 48 hours, which is forecast to be fully complete sometime in the 72-96 h forecast time frame. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is also close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin Islands through today. 2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through early today. 3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on Bermuda late this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe, and Tropical Storm Watches could become required for the island later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.5N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.4N 65.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 23.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 35.3N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 43.1N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 51.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papinmore...
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