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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.

A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern
Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the
next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
more...
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Melissa was located near 41.0, -51.4 with movement E at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. more...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 51.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Melissa was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 51.4 West.
Melissa is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The cyclone should gradually weaken before it dissipates on
Tuesday.

Gale-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to
the southeast through southwest of the from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along
much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Latto

more...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

000
WTNT24 KNHC 141437
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142019
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  80 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N  51.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  53.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N  51.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO


more...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

000
WTNT44 KNHC 141438
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019

Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow
convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the
center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a
frontal zone.  The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds
with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into
the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship
report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds
are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be
this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is
expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate
before it reaches the Azores.

Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within
mid-latitude westerlies.  This general motion is expected to
continue until the cyclone dissipates.

This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane
Center.  Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 41.0N  51.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  15/0000Z 41.4N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  15/1200Z 41.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

more...

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