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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ophelia, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred
miles southwest of the Azores.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 350
miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are
not expected to be conducive for significant development during the
next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph and passes north of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin
Islands. However, environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for some development early next week while the system
begins to move northward over the west-central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
more...
Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.8, -32.9 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph. more...
Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 18
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 131436
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 32.9W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 32.9 West.  Ophelia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday with an increase in forward
speed.  A faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin Saturday
night and continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Ophelia will pass near or southeast of the southeastern
Azores late Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday
night.  During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores.  This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

more...
Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 18
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017

000
WTNT22 KNHC 131435
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172017
1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN
AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  32.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  32.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  33.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.6N  30.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.1N  27.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N  22.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.7N  17.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N  11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 110SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 60.0N   4.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  32.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


more...
Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 18
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

000
WTNT42 KNHC 131440
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017

The eye of Ophelia has become a bit more apparent in visible and
infrared imagery during the past couple of hours, but the cloud tops
around the eye have also warmed recently. The initial intensity is
set to 85 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers. The hurricane will remain in an
environment of marginal SSTs and light to moderate shear for the
next day or so, which suggests little change in intensity during
that time. By 36 hours, the shear will begin to increase as a
powerful upper-level trough approaches from the west, but Ophelia
should remain at hurricane force during extratropical transition as
it undergoes a favorable interaction with the aforementioned trough
and takes on a warm seclusion structure. The transition process
is expected to be complete by 72 hours, and post-tropical Ophelia
should gradually weaken as the cyclone occludes beneath the upper
trough. The low-level circulation of Ophelia is expected to
dissipate over Scandinavia by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 060/10. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ophelia should move
east-northeastward ahead of the approaching upper-level trough with
a steady increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. The
hurricane should turn northeastward by 48 hours followed by a
north-northeastward motion at days 3 and 4. The track model guidance
is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some
differences in forward speed beyond 48 hours. The new NHC track
is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid through
the forecast period. On this track, the center of Ophelia is
expected to move southeast of the Azores during the next 36 hours
and then move near or over Ireland and the western part of the UK in
3 to 4 days. Given the expected increase in the size of Ophelia's
wind field during extratropical transition, impacts from strong
winds and rain are becoming increasingly likely over portions of the
British Isles regardless of the exact track of the center.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due
to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

A 1242 UTC ASCAT-B pass was helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii around Ophelia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are becoming more likely, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United
Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 31.8N  32.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 32.6N  30.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 34.1N  27.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 36.5N  22.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 40.7N  17.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 51.0N  11.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  17/1200Z 60.0N   4.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

more...

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