000
ABNT20 KNHC 041122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a couple hundred miles north-northwest of
the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 4 the center of Philippe was located near 20.5, -65.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph. more...

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

930 
WTNT32 KNHC 040843
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe, as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was 
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.5 West. Philippe is 
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the 
north-northwest is forecast later today, followed by a faster motion 
toward the north on Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Philippe will continue to move away from Puerto Rico and 
the Virgin Islands today.  Philippe will then approach Bermuda 
Thursday night and Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, 
but some gradual intensification could occur after that time.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through today:
 
The United States & British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with
maximum amounts to 12 inches.
 
Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches.
 
This rainfall is likely to result in scattered flash flooding.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
the Virgin Islands through early today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another couple of days.  Swells are expected to
reach Bermuda by late Thursday.  These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

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Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 040842
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  65.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  65.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.4N  65.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N  65.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE  60SW 180NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 51.5N  72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  65.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

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Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 040849
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Philippe remains a disorganized tropical storm this morning, yet 
continues to produce heavy rainfall over the British and U.S. Virgin 
Islands. This activity remains displaced well to the southeast of 
the estimated circulation center, and appears to be more associated 
with the storm's inflow interacting with a well-defined mid-level 
circulation just north of St. Thomas, which is evident from radar in 
Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data received just after the last 
advisory showed values around 40 kt in this area of convection, and 
the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. This value is on the 
higher end of the Dvorak intensity estimates, but does match the 
most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate.
 
The earlier scatterometer data suggested that Philippe had slowed 
down some, possibly due to the ongoing convection to its southeast, 
but its latest motion appears to have resumed a more northwestward 
motion at 325/8 kt. The track guidance remains in agreement about 
the storm turning more northward later today, with gradual 
acceleration as the mid-level ridge that has been impeding its 
poleward progress gradually shifts eastward, and Philippe becomes 
steered between a deep-layer low to its west, and the aforementioned 
ridge to its east. Compared to the previous cycle, the guidance has 
shifted a bit eastward over the first 2-3 days of the forecast 
period, and the latest NHC track forecast was shifted a bit further 
east early on, but not as far as the consensus aids. After Philippe 
passes by Bermuda on Friday, it is forecast to interact with a much 
more amplified trough swinging into the northeastern United States 
this weekend. This evolution may result in Philippe's track 
potentially bending back north-northwest on Saturday, approaching 
Atlantic Canada and New England as it phases with the larger trough. 
There still remains quite a bit of spread in the track guidance by 
96 h due to this interaction.  

The intensity forecast remains murky. Right now, the low-level 
circulation of Philippe remains diffuse, and even though vertical 
wind shear could potentially slacken some over the next 24 hours, 
the cyclone appears to be in no state to intensify in the 
short-term. Thereafter, Philippe may have an opportunity to take 
advantage of some synoptic mid-latitude dynamics associated with the 
initial upper-level trough positioned to the west of its 
circulation. Thus, some gradual intensification is shown between 
36-60 h. With that said, some of the model guidance (like the most 
recent GFS run) shows Philippe instead being absorbed into this 
non-tropical feature, though that solution is not shown at this 
time. Regardless, increasing baroclinicity should also begin to 
initiate extratropical transition after 48 hours, which is forecast 
to be fully complete sometime in the 72-96 h forecast time frame. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the 
guidance envelope, and is also close to the HFIP Corrected 
Consensus Approach (HCCA). 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the United States & British Virgin
Islands through today.
 
2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through early today.
 
3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda late this week.  Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe, and Tropical Storm Watches could become 
required for the island later today. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 20.5N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 21.4N  65.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 23.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 32.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 35.3N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 43.1N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/0600Z 51.5N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

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