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NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020530
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaias, located between the northwestern Bahamas and
southeastern Florida, and has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern
Atlantic.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continue to show
signs of organization. Recent satellite wind data, however, indicate
that the system remains disorganized at the surface. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by
the middle of the week. This system is forecast to turn
northwestward and then northward over the western Atlantic, passing
north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
more...
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 the center of Isaias was located near 26.3, -79.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. more...
Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

000
WTNT34 KNHC 020856
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
 
...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
southeast United States coast to South Santee River South Carolina.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South 
Carolina northward to Cape Fear North Carolina.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Hallandale Beach.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North
Carolina
 
Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion by tonight.  A turn toward the north 
and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed.  On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today 
through late tonight.  On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias 
will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected 
during the next couple of days.  
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance 
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:
 
Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.
 
Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.
 
Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.
 
Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.
 
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
 
more...
Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

000
WTNT24 KNHC 020855
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY...
NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS.  ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N  80.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N  80.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N  80.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N  79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N  76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.9N  72.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.0N  65.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N  79.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
more...
Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

000
WTNT44 KNHC 020856
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
 
The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the
center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement 
in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance 
aircraft data and radar imagery.  The tropical cyclone is still 
being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind 
shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has 
provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb 
flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51 
kt.  These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate 
that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt.  In addition, both the aircraft 
and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion 
of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.
 
Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it
appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is
closing.  The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show
the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves 
near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast 
shows little change in strength during this time.  Later in the 
period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward 
along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity 
forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus 
model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.
 
Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving
northwestward or 325/8 kt.  A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a 
deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of 
Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday.  After
that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward
into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
 
The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has
necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.
The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the 
northwestern Bahamas through today.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the
coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on
Monday.
 
3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.
 
4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and 
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly 
drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to 
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the 
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week.
 
5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coast
of South and North Carolina.  Additional watches and warnings will
likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move
northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts over
the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 26.3N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 27.4N  80.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 28.8N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 30.7N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 33.7N  79.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/1800Z 37.8N  76.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0600Z 42.9N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/0600Z 50.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
more...

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